Western diets must be abandoned for vegetarianism or greenhouse gases will rise by 80%, experts warn

A love of meat and sugary treats could be damaging the planet, as well as your health.

By 2050, experts predict that these so-called western diets, which are typically high in fats and oils, will cause greenhouse gas emissions to increase by 80 per cent.

If left unchecked, this could also lead to an extra billion hectares of habitat being destroyed to make way for the extra land needed for food production and agriculture.

‘Rising incomes and urbanisation are driving a global dietary transition in which traditional diets are replaced by diets higher in refined sugars, refined fats, oils and meats,’ explained ecologists Professor David Tilman and graduate student Matthew Clark from the University of Minnesota.

‘By 2050, these dietary trends will be a major contributor to an estimated 80 per cent increase in global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions from food production and to global land clearing.’

The researchers said these dietary shifts are also greatly increasing the number of cases of Type II diabetes, coronary heart disease and other chronic diseases that lower global life expectancies.

Their study, published in the journal Nature, analysed data on environmental costs of food production, diet trends, relationships between diet and health and population growth.

This chart reveals the amount of greenhouse gases are emitted, per kilocalorie, of typical diets and servings of cereals, fruit and vegetables, dairy and eggs, fish and livestock. By, 2050 the experts predict diets will contain fewer servings of fruits and vegetables, but 25 to 50 percent more pork, poultry, beef, dairy and eggs 

Between 1961 and 2009, the pair discovered that consumption of meat and calories per person rose in tandem with income.

Combining this with forecasts of population and income growth for the coming decades, the researchers showed diets in 2050 would contain fewer servings of fruits and vegetables, but 25 to 50 percent more pork, poultry, beef, dairy and eggs.

The study also used a computer model to see how changing from an omnivore diet to a typical Mediterranean, pescatarian or vegetarian alternative could make a difference.

Their results show that these alternatives have the potential to reduce incidences of Type II diabetes by, on average, 27 per cent, cancer by about 10 per cent and heart disease deaths by about 20 per cent.

The researchers added the estimates are conservative and the benefits have the potential to be even better.

DEMAND FOR ENERGY SET TO INCREASE EMISSIONS BY A FIFTH

The University of Minnesota's prediction about a rise in emissions is also in addition to predictions made by International Energy Agency (IEA) today.

Analysts have warned that growing emissions from energy are putting the world on track to see temperature rises of 3.6ºC, despite a boom in renewables.

By 2040, energy demand will be 37 per cent higher than it is now, putting pressure on supplies and pushing up greenhouse gas emissions by a fifth. 

This is despite major growth in renewables, which will account for nearly half of the increase in power generation around the world by 2040 and overtake coal as the leading source of electricity on current trajectories

Analysts have warned that growing emissions from energy are putting the world on track to see temperature rises of 3.6ºC, despite a boom in renewables. By 2040, energy demand will be 375 higher than it is now, putting pressure on supplies and pushing up greenhouse gas emissions by a fifth

Policies and developments in markets will see the share of fossil fuels fall to just under three-quarters of energy demand, with coal, gas, oil and low-carbon technologies roughly accounting for a quarter each.

But this will not be enough to stem rising energy-related emissions, putting the world on track for long-term temperature rises of 3.6ºC, the World Energy Outlook from the IEA said.

The failure to transform the energy system quickly enough to put the world on a path consistent with the goal of limiting temperature rises to 2ºC is a critical 'sign of stress' in the energy system, the IEA said.

The organisation said it showed the need for a comprehensive and ambitious global deal to tackle climate change, which it is hoped can be negotiated in Paris next year.

‘Alternative diets that offer substantial health benefits could, if widely adopted, reduce global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, reduce land clearing and resultant species extinctions, and help prevent such diet-related chronic non-communicable diseases.

‘In particular, if the world were to adopt variations on three common diets health would be greatly increased at the same time global greenhouse gas emissions were reduced by an amount equal to the current greenhouse gas emissions of all cars, trucks, plans trains and ships.

‘This dietary shift would prevent the destruction of an area of tropical forests and savannas as large as half of the United States.’

The results back up the findings of a previous study from the University of Cambridge and University of Aberdeen that said eating less meat is 'essential' to ensure future demand for food can be met and 'dangerous' climate change avoided. 

The study also looked to see how changing from an omnivore diet to a typical Mediterranean, pescatarian or vegetarian alternative could make a difference. Their results show these alternatives could reduce the number of cases of Type II diabetes by 27%, cancer by about 10% and heart disease deaths by about 20% (pictured)

The study found food production alone could exceed targets for greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 if current trends continue.

Population growth and the global shift towards 'meat-heavy Western diets' has meant increasing agricultural yields will not meet projected food demands for an expected 9.6 billion world population in 30 years, according to the researchers  

This rise in emissions is also in addition to predictions made by International Energy Agency (IEA) today.

Analysts have warned that growing emissions from energy are putting the world on track to see temperature rises of 3.6ºC, despite a boom in renewables.

By 2040, energy demand will be 37 per cent higher than it is now, putting pressure on supplies and pushing up greenhouse gas emissions by a fifth. 

This is despite major growth in renewables, which will account for nearly half of the increase in power generation around the world by 2040 and overtake coal as the leading source of electricity on current trajectories.